Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.