While past results between the sides favours Corinthians to come out on top, their struggles away from home offer little optimism heading into Wednesday. Vasco have been tough to crack at the Estadio Sao Januario in recent weeks, and given their new-found form, we are tipping them to secure all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Corinthians had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Corinthians win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Corinthians
44.72% ( 0.05)	26.8% ( 0.09)	28.48% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 49.17% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.51% (

-0.42)

55.49% (

0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.32% (

-0.35)

76.67% (

0.35)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.3% (

-0.16)

24.7% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.76% (

-0.23)

59.24% (

0.23)

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.3% (

-0.34)

34.69% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.58% (

-0.36)

71.42% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 44.72%

Corinthians 28.48%

Draw 26.79%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Corinthians
1-0 @ 11.98% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 4.13% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.72%	1-1 @ 12.68% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.79%	0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.17% Total : 28.48%

How you voted: Vasco vs Corinthians

Vasco da Gama

66.7%

Draw

30.6%

Corinthians

2.8%

Head to Head

Nov 29, 2023 12.30am

Gameweek 36

Vasco

2-4

Corinthians

Luis Rodriguez (3'), Vegetti (25')
Capasso (68'), Piton (76'), Vegetti (90+8')

Romero (13', 45'), Moscardo (61'), Giovane (90+4')
Alberto (68'), Miguel (90+5')

Jul 29, 2023 10.30pm

Gameweek 17

Corinthians

3-1

Vasco

Maycon (19'), Alberto (62'), Guedes (73' pen.)
Caetano (8'), Vera (90+4')

Pec (71')

Feb 21, 2021 7pm

Gameweek 37

Corinthians

0-0

Vasco

Fagner (31')

Magno (31'), Junior (86')

Oct 22, 2020 1.30am

Gameweek 18

Vasco

1-2

Corinthians

Ribamar (73')
Castan (26')

Mantuan (23'), Henrique (90' og.)
Ederson (45+1'), Cantillo (59')

Sep 29, 2019 3pm

Gameweek 22

Corinthians

1-0

Vasco

Ralf (59')
Boselli (45'), Jadson (73'), Cassio (94')

Raul (27'), Bruno (46'), Castan (68'), Pikachu (69'), Danilo (94')

Form Guide

Internacional 1-2 Vasco

Cruzeiro 3-0 Corinthians

Corinthians 3-2 Vitoria

Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians

Corinthians 1-1 Cuiaba

Athletico PR 1-1 Corinthians

Internacional 1-0 Corinthians

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