Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 1, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Mage-Solar-Stadion
Freiburg2 - 1Mainz 05
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-0 Freiburg
Sunday, September 18 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga
Sunday, September 18 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Friday, September 16 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Friday, September 16 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
We said: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05
Just three points separate the two sides, but recent form and home advantage might just be the decisive factor here. Freiburg come into the game on the back of three clean sheets in all competitions, whereas Mainz's recent form has been slightly more questionable. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
47.11% ( -0.56) | 24.2% ( -0.11) | 28.68% ( 0.67) |
| Both teams to score 57.52% ( 0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.34% ( 0.93) | 44.66% ( -0.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.98% ( 0.89) | 67.02% ( -0.89) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.91% ( 0.14) | 19.08% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.31% ( 0.23) | 50.69% ( -0.23) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.09% ( 0.96) | 28.91% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.21% ( 1.18) | 64.79% ( -1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
Freiburg 47.11%
Mainz 05 28.68%
Draw 24.2%
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.33)2-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 5.19% 3-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.11% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.57% Total : 28.68% |
How you voted: Freiburg vs Mainz 05
Freiburg
82.2%Draw
13.3%Mainz 05
4.4%45
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2022 2.30pm
Sep 18, 2021 2.30pm
Mar 13, 2021 2.30pm
Nov 22, 2020 2.30pm
Jan 18, 2020 2.30pm
Form Guide
