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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 1
Aug 20, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
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Union Berlin
4 - 1
Mainz

Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz
Saturday, August 12 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

 Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday. Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
50.29% (1.172 1.17) 24.89% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 24.82% (-1.232 -1.23)
Both teams to score 52% (-1.354 -1.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (-1.225 -1.23)50.39% (1.226 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-1.095 -1.1)72.33% (1.097 1.1)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.95%20.05% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.73% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)52.26% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.04% (-1.692 -1.69)34.96% (1.695 1.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.3% (-1.82 -1.82)71.7% (1.821 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 50.29%
    Mainz 05 24.82%
    Draw 24.88%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 11.26% (0.55 0.55)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.438 0.44)
3-1 @ 5.1% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.85% (0.235 0.23)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.117 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.95% (0.094 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 50.29%
1-1 @ 11.83% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.34 0.34)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.218 -0.22)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.37% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.22% (-0.271 -0.27)
0-2 @ 3.87% (-0.168 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.18% (-0.202 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.75% (-0.163 -0.16)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.126 -0.13)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 24.82%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
86.8%
Draw
7.9%
Mainz 05
5.3%
38
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
2-1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 2
Mainz
0-0
Union Berlin
Onisiwo (5')
> Preview
Feb 26, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Union Berlin
3-1
Mainz
Haraguchi (8'), Becker (56'), Awoniyi (75')
Trimmel (42'), Jaeckel (67'), Baumgartl (90+2'), Khedira (90+2')
Burgzorg (90')
Svensson (12'), Hack (18'), Kohr (58'), Stoger (90+2')
Kohr (60')
> Preview
Oct 3, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Mainz
1-2
Union Berlin
Ingvartsen (39')
Kohr (75')
Kohr (90+2')
Awoniyi (69', 73')
Haraguchi (45+2'), Knoche (65'), Promel (79'), Kruse (82')
> Preview
Feb 6, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Mainz
1-0
Union Berlin
Niakhate (22' pen.)
Kohr (28'), Barreiro (40')

Schlotterbeck (21'), Teuchert (33'), Knoche (60'), Trimmel (67')
Schlotterbeck (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern15113147133436
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1595137211632
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1583435231227
4RB Leipzig158342420427
5Mainz 05Mainz157442820825
6Borussia DortmundDortmund157442822625
7Werder Bremen157442625125
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach157352520524
9Freiburg157352124-324
10Stuttgart156542925423
11Wolfsburg156363228421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin154561419-517
13Augsburg154471732-1516
14St Pauli154291219-714
15Hoffenheim153572028-814
16Heidenheim1531111833-1510
17Holstein Kiel1522111938-198
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1513111335-226
> Bundesliga Full Table


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