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Champions League
Union Berlin logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 3, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Helsingin olympiastadion
Braga

Union Berlin
2 - 3
Braga

Becker (30', 37')
Bonucci (13'), Leite (54'), Juranovic (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Niakate (41'), Bruma (51'), Castro (90+4')
Horta (13'), Banza (46'), Zalazar (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Union Berlin and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Heidenheim 1-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 30 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Braga

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-4 Braga
Thursday, September 28 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Union Berlin 1-2 Braga

 Union Berlin are in need of a big result to act as a springboard amid their disappointing form, but we are finding it very difficult to back them at the moment. Braga are full of quality in the final third of the field, and we are expecting the Portuguese side to claim all three points on Tuesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 46.01%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawBraga
28.65% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 25.34% (0.0030000000000001 0) 46.01% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Both teams to score 53.74% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.39% (0.012 0.01)49.6% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.37% (0.010999999999999 0.01)71.63% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.52% (0.024000000000001 0.02)31.48% (-0.02 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.14% (0.027000000000001 0.03)67.86% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.43% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)21.56% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.35% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)54.64% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 28.65%
    Braga 46.01%
    Draw 25.33%
Union BerlinDrawBraga
1-0 @ 7.85% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-1 @ 6.96% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-0 @ 4.53% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 2.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.06% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 1.75% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 28.65%
1-1 @ 12.03%
0-0 @ 6.79% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.34% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.33%
0-1 @ 10.41%
1-2 @ 9.23% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 7.99% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.72% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 4.09% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.73%
1-4 @ 1.81% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.57% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 46.01%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Braga

Union Berlin
32.4%
Draw
19.6%
Braga
48.0%
179
Head to Head
Oct 27, 2022 5.45pm
Group Stage
Union Berlin
1-0
Braga
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> Preview
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1-0
Union Berlin
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> Preview
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1Liverpool18143145172845
2Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest1911442619737
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4Chelsea19105438231535
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle1995532211132
6Manchester CityMan City199463226631
7Bournemouth198652923630
8Fulham197842825329
9Aston Villa198562831-329
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton196942928127
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1973941281324
12Brentford187383232024
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd196492126-522
15Crystal Palace194872027-720
16Everton183871524-917
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1944113142-1116
18Ipswich TownIpswich1936101833-1515
19Leicester CityLeicester1935112242-2014
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