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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 53.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Millwall had a probability of 21.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Millwall win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Leicester City | Draw | Millwall |
53.97% ( -1.7) | 24.35% ( 0.73) | 21.68% ( 0.98) |
Both teams to score 50% ( -0.84) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.76% ( -1.8) | 51.24% ( 1.81) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.93% ( -1.6) | 73.07% ( 1.6) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.09% ( -1.31) | 18.91% ( 1.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.59% ( -2.23) | 50.41% ( 2.24) |
Millwall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.67% ( -0.03) | 38.33% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.91% ( -0.03) | 75.09% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Leicester City | Draw | Millwall |
1-0 @ 12.07% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.3) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.24) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.08% Total : 53.96% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.34) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.48) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.53% Total : 21.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 |
7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 |
13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 |
15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 |
R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 |
R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 |
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