MX23RW : Wednesday, January 29 21:45:12| >> :60:264:264:
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
0 - 0
Boca Juniors


Rodriguez (77')
FT

Zeballos (76'), Valentini (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Nacional and Boca Juniors, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, July 22 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Independiente 0-2 Boca Juniors
Saturday, July 29 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Nacional 1-1 Boca Juniors

While Boca Juniors may boast slightly more quality than their hosts, we do see the two teams as relatively evenly matched, and with Almiron's side expected to be somewhat cautious away from home, we anticipate the first leg finishing level in Uruguay. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
NacionalDrawBoca Juniors
34.59% (0.981 0.98) 28.84% (-0.541 -0.54) 36.56% (-0.445 -0.45)
Both teams to score 45.3% (1.58 1.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.7% (1.874 1.87)61.29% (-1.878 -1.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.78% (1.374 1.37)81.21% (-1.38 -1.38)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.66% (1.665 1.67)33.34% (-1.669 -1.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.04% (1.79 1.79)69.96% (-1.793 -1.79)
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.95% (0.684 0.68)32.05% (-0.688 -0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.48% (0.771 0.77)68.52% (-0.774 -0.77)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 34.59%
    Boca Juniors 36.56%
    Draw 28.83%
NacionalDrawBoca Juniors
1-0 @ 11.73% (-0.29 -0.29)
2-1 @ 7.34% (0.285 0.29)
2-0 @ 6.45% (0.133 0.13)
3-1 @ 2.69% (0.219 0.22)
3-0 @ 2.36% (0.151 0.15)
3-2 @ 1.53% (0.151 0.15)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 34.59%
1-1 @ 13.35% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 10.68% (-0.77 -0.77)
2-2 @ 4.17% (0.237 0.24)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 28.83%
0-1 @ 12.15% (-0.64 -0.64)
1-2 @ 7.6% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 6.92% (-0.228 -0.23)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.09 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.62% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.58% (0.118 0.12)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 36.56%

How you voted: Nacional vs Boca Juniors

Nacional
15.0%
Draw
40.0%
Boca Juniors
45.0%
20
rhs 2.0
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