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Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 26, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
Botafogo logo

Sao Paulo
1 - 1
Botafogo

Calleri (87')
Bobadilla (53'), Nestor (79'), Marcal (90+2'), Vinicius (90+7'), Rafinha (90+2'), Rafinha (90+2')
Rafinha (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Almada (15')
Barboza (45+2'), John (49')
Botafogo win 5-4 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Sao Paulo and Botafogo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-3 Internacional
Sunday, September 22 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fluminense 0-1 Botafogo
Saturday, September 21 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

We said: Sao Paulo 0-1 Botafogo (Botafogo advances 1-0 on aggregate)

Fogo have won countless one-goal games in the Brazilian top-flight this season, and we trust their consistency against Brasileiro opposition will continue in midweek and carry them into the final four of this tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 45.65%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 26.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.01%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result
Sao PauloDrawBotafogo
45.65% (-0.218 -0.22) 27.6% (0.334 0.33) 26.75% (-0.116 -0.12)
Both teams to score 45.81% (-0.986 -0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.75% (-1.223 -1.22)59.25% (1.222 1.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.34% (-0.952 -0.95)79.66% (0.953 0.95)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.07% (-0.66200000000001 -0.66)25.93% (0.662 0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.07% (-0.903 -0.9)60.93% (0.905 0.91)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.85% (-0.771 -0.77)38.15% (0.771 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.09% (-0.751 -0.75)74.91% (0.752 0.75)
Score Analysis
    Sao Paulo 45.64%
    Botafogo 26.75%
    Draw 27.59%
Sao PauloDrawBotafogo
1-0 @ 13.35% (0.36 0.36)
2-0 @ 9.01% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.11 -0.11)
3-0 @ 4.05% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.91% (-0.126 -0.13)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-0 @ 1.37% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.32% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 45.64%
1-1 @ 12.86% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 9.89% (0.448 0.45)
2-2 @ 4.18% (-0.143 -0.14)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 27.59%
0-1 @ 9.53% (0.239 0.24)
1-2 @ 6.2% (-0.091 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.59% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.99% (-0.072 -0.07)
0-3 @ 1.48% (-0.025 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.076 -0.08)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 26.75%

How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Botafogo

Sao Paulo
32.0%
Draw
32.0%
Botafogo
36.0%
25
Head to Head
Sep 19, 2024 1.30am
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Botafogo
0-0
Sao Paulo
Henrique (30'), Bastos (72')
Rafinha (82'), Arboleda (90+4')
Jul 24, 2024 11.30pm
Gameweek 19
Sao Paulo
2-2
Botafogo
Moura (6' pen.), Ferreira (60')
Rafinha (24'), Franco (45+5'), Moura (51'), Cuiabano (63'), Luciano (76')
Tiquinho (11' pen.), Cuiabano (22')
Gregore (39'), Freitas (59'), Jorge (62'), Freitas (63')
Jul 24, 2024 11.30pm
Gameweek 19
Sao Paulo
2-2
Botafogo
Moura (6' pen.), Ferreira (60')
Rafinha (24'), Franco (45+5'), Moura (51'), Cuiabano (63'), Luciano (76')
Tiquinho (11' pen.), Cuiabano (22')
Gregore (39'), Freitas (59'), Jorge (62'), Freitas (63')
Aug 19, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 20
Sao Paulo
0-0
Botafogo
Luciano (50'), Welington (53'), Diego (90+1'), Rafinha (90+3')
Di Placido (2'), Tche (61')
Apr 15, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 1
Botafogo
2-1
Sao Paulo
Tiquinho (4'), Eduardo (88')
Calleri (15')
rhs 2.0
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