COSAFA Cup | Group Stage

Jun 27, 2024 at 5pm UK

Konkola Stadium

Zambia
0 - 2
Kenya

Chinga (8'), Kangwanda (54'), Kapumbu (87')
Kapumbu (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Odhiambo (9' pen.), Otieno (19')
Onyango (66'), Odhiambo (90')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the COSAFA Cup Group Stage clash between Zambia and Kenya.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions

Last Game: Zambia 0-1 Tanzania
Tuesday, June 11 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Kenya

All competitions

Last Game: Kenya 0-0 Ivory Coast
Tuesday, June 11 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Algeria	3	6	9
2	Senegal	3	4	6
3	Kenya	3	-4	3
4	Tanzania	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Kenya had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Kenya win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
Zambia	Draw	Kenya
36.5% ( 0.18)	27.38% ( -0.2)	36.11% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 49.72% (

0.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.13% (

0.76)

55.87% (

-0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.01% (

0.61)

76.98% (

-0.62)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.63% (

0.49)

29.37% (

-0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.64% (

0.59)

65.35% (

-0.6)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.39% (

0.38)

29.61% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.35% (

0.46)

65.64% (

-0.47)

Score Analysis

Zambia 36.5%

Kenya 36.11%

Draw 27.37%

Zambia	Draw	Kenya
1-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.24% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.5% Total : 36.5%	1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 8.7% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.37%	0-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.11%