MX23RW : Tuesday, December 3 17:34:28| >> :60:646:646:
Freiburg logo
DFB-Pokal | Semi-Finals
May 2, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Leipzig logo

Freiburg
1 - 5
RB Leipzig

Gregoritsch (75')
Kubler (68'), Sallai (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-4)
Olmo (13'), Henrichs (14'), Szoboszlai (37', 90+7' pen.), Nkunku (45+1')
Nkunku (60'), Blaswich (69'), Laimer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Freiburg and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: FC Koln 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, April 29 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

RB Leipzig

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 1-0 Hoffenheim
Saturday, April 29 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 RB Leipzig

 Despite Leipzig's seven-match unbeaten run against Freiburg, the home side's motivation to beat the Red Bulls and make another final should see them edge Rose's troops. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawRB Leipzig
30.01% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 23.68% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 46.3% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Both teams to score 60.2% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.48% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)41.51%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.09% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)63.91%
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.57% (0.027999999999992 0.03)26.42% (-0.029999999999998 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.41% (0.038000000000004 0.04)61.59% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.82% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)18.17% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.84% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)49.16% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 30.01%
    RB Leipzig 46.3%
    Draw 23.68%
FreiburgDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 7.25% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-0 @ 6.39% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 4.25% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.22% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.89% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 30.01%
1-1 @ 10.89%
2-2 @ 6.18% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 4.8%
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.68%
1-2 @ 9.29% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-1 @ 8.19% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.28% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.97% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.52% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 2.25% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 1.69% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.5% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 46.3%

How you voted: Freiburg vs RB Leipzig

Freiburg
57.4%
Draw
13.1%
RB Leipzig
29.5%
122
Head to Head
Nov 9, 2022 7.30pm
gameweek 14
RB Leipzig
3-1
Freiburg
Simakan (54'), Nkunku (56'), Forsberg (78' pen.)
Kubler (66')
Doan (41')
May 21, 2022 7pm
Final
Freiburg
1-1
RB Leipzig
 RB Leipzig win 4-2 on penalties
Eggestein (19')
Kubler (81'), Lienhart (90'), Demirovic (113')
Nkunku (76')
Simakan (57'), Kampl (57'), Forsberg (82'), Tedesco (90+2'), Kampl (119')
Halstenberg (57')
Mar 5, 2022 2.30pm
gameweek 25
RB Leipzig
1-1
Freiburg
Angelino (90')
Henrichs (68')
Demirovic (38')
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 8
Freiburg
1-1
RB Leipzig
Woo-yeong (64')
Forsberg (32' pen.)
Marsch (36'), Haidara (44'), Gvardiol (57'), Simakan (85'), Mukiele (89')
Mar 6, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 24
Freiburg
0-3
RB Leipzig

Hofler (52')
Nkunku (41'), Sorloth (64'), Forsberg (79')
Hee-chan (75')
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