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Bundesliga | Gameweek 26
Apr 1, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Mainz logo

RB Leipzig
0 - 3
Mainz


Kampl (37'), Olmo (65'), Orban (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
Caci (61'), Ingvartsen (64'), Hanche-Olsen (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Freiburg
Sunday, March 19 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Mainz 05

Leipzig have been extremely consistent at the Red Bull Arena during Rose's tenure, and we expect them to deliver another home victory to potentially move into the top four on Saturday. However, Mainz have proven tough to beat throughout the majority of Svensson's two-year reign, and this weekend's meeting with Die Roten Bullen should prove no different even if they may fall short in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 61.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
61.87% (-0.186 -0.19) 20.4% (0.076999999999998 0.08) 17.72% (0.107 0.11)
Both teams to score 56.29% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.34% (-0.17599999999999 -0.18)39.66% (0.175 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.99% (-0.183 -0.18)62.01% (0.184 0.18)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.68% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)12.32% (0.105 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.88% (-0.222 -0.22)38.12% (0.221 0.22)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.2% (0.013999999999996 0.01)35.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.42% (0.015999999999998 0.02)72.57% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 61.87%
    Mainz 05 17.72%
    Draw 20.4%
RB LeipzigDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.67%
1-0 @ 9.24% (0.038 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.93% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.75% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 3.53% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.86% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.52% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 61.87%
1-1 @ 9.49% (0.042 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.1% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-0 @ 4.41% (0.036 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 20.4%
1-2 @ 4.87% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.53% (0.038 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.33% (0.021 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.75% (0.002 0)
1-3 @ 1.67% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 17.72%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Mainz

RB Leipzig
86.7%
Draw
10.0%
Mainz 05
3.3%
60
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
4-1
Mainz
Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')
Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')
Aug 15, 2021 2.30pm
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
3-2
RB Leipzig
Niakhate (24', 35'), Barreiro (50')
Niakhate (40'), da Costa (75')
Adams (15'), Halstenberg (30')
Halstenberg (23'), Adams (70'), Orban (88'), Sorloth (90+2')
Sep 20, 2020 2.30pm
RB Leipzig
3-1
Mainz
Forsberg (17' pen.), Poulsen (21'), Haidara (51')
Poulsen (64')
Mateta (48')
Mateta (30'), Latza (58')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern19153158164248
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen19126146262042
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt19114444261837
4Stuttgart199553628832
5RB Leipzig199553429532
6Mainz 05Mainz1994633231031
7Wolfsburg198474234828
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach198383029127
9Werder Bremen197663336-327
10Freiburg198382636-1027
11Borussia DortmundDortmund197573433126
12Augsburg197482334-1125
13St Pauli1962111721-420
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin195591627-1120
15Hoffenheim194692537-1218
16Heidenheim1942132440-1614
17Holstein Kiel1933132848-2012
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1924131743-2610


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