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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 88.46%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 3.74%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.5%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (1.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
88.46% | 7.8% | 3.74% |
Both teams to score 48.87% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
79.8% | 20.19% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
61.59% | 38.4% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
97.17% | 2.82% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
87.09% | 12.91% |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.29% | 49.71% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.54% | 84.45% |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
3-0 @ 10.65% 4-0 @ 9.51% 2-0 @ 8.95% 3-1 @ 7.45% 5-0 @ 6.79% 4-1 @ 6.65% 2-1 @ 6.26% 1-0 @ 5.01% 5-1 @ 4.75% 6-0 @ 4.04% 6-1 @ 2.83% 3-2 @ 2.6% 4-2 @ 2.32% 7-0 @ 2.06% 5-2 @ 1.66% 7-1 @ 1.44% 6-2 @ 0.99% 8-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 3.58% Total : 88.45% | 1-1 @ 3.5% 2-2 @ 2.19% 0-0 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.71% Total : 7.8% | 1-2 @ 1.22% 0-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.53% Total : 3.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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