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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.45%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 24.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
NAC Breda | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.17% ( -0.04) | 24.38% ( -0.04) | 51.45% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 52.91% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.13% ( 0.13) | 48.87% ( -0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.04% ( 0.12) | 70.96% ( -0.12) |
NAC Breda Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.31% ( 0.03) | 34.69% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.58% ( 0.03) | 71.42% ( -0.03) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.02% ( 0.08) | 18.98% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.47% ( 0.14) | 50.53% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
NAC Breda | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.13% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 24.17% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.37% | 0-1 @ 10.94% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.63% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.09% 1-3 @ 5.33% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 51.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |