While Feyenoord enter this match as the favourites, they have not been at their best this season and are also missing a few key players, perhaps none more so than Santiago Gimenez, who is likely to miss the remainder of the calendar year.
In addition, the Pride of South are also likely to have one eye on their midweek trip to Spain to face Girona in a crucial Champions League fixture, which could force Brian Priske to err on the side of caution in his selection this week. For those reasons, we feel that NEC could sneak a result in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 58.9%. A win for NEC had a probability of 20.78% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.97%) and 0-1 (7.38%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (5.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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