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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.45%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 15.86%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.96%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
15.86% ( -0.23) | 20.68% ( 0.07) | 63.45% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 51.26% ( -0.75) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.67% ( -0.73) | 44.33% ( 0.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.29% ( -0.72) | 66.7% ( 0.71) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.13% ( -0.74) | 40.87% ( 0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.56% ( -0.67) | 77.44% ( 0.66) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.69% ( -0.19) | 13.31% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.85% ( -0.37) | 40.15% ( 0.36) |
Score Analysis |
PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.8% Total : 15.86% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.1) Other @ 1% Total : 20.68% | 0-2 @ 11.06% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 7.44% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 6.65% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 3.75% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.36% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.09) 0-5 @ 1.51% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.05) 1-5 @ 1.35% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.99% Total : 63.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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