MX23RW : Saturday, November 23 20:19:09| >> :300:86500:86500:
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
Waalwijk logo
Sparta Rotterdam logo
Willem II
Excelsior
Eredivisie | Gameweek 19
Jan 29, 2023 at 1.30pm UK
 
Ajax

Excelsior
1 - 4
Ajax

El Yaakoubi (36')
Driouech (59')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Tadic (15' pen.), Klaassen (45'), Kudus (61'), Rensch (83')
Alvarez (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between SBV Excelsior and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Utrecht 1-0 Excelsior
Wednesday, January 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 1-1 Volendam
Thursday, January 26 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: SBV Excelsior 1-2 Ajax

Off the back of an underwhelming run of results, Ajax simply cannot afford to drop any more points at the moment, making this weekend's clash a must-win for them. We are backing the Dutch giants to rise up to the occasion and carry the day at the sound of the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 10.65%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-3 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
SBV ExcelsiorDrawAjax
10.65% (-0.44 -0.44) 14.41% (-0.167 -0.17) 74.94% (0.608 0.61)
Both teams to score 59.47% (-1.049 -1.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.38% (-0.505 -0.5)26.62% (0.506 0.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
52.99% (-0.645 -0.64)47.01% (0.646 0.65)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.26% (-1.114 -1.11)36.74% (1.115 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.47% (-1.131 -1.13)73.53% (1.133 1.13)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.01% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)5.99% (0.0040000000000004 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
77.15% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)22.85% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
Score Analysis
    SBV Excelsior 10.65%
    Ajax 74.94%
    Draw 14.41%
SBV ExcelsiorDrawAjax
2-1 @ 3.11% (-0.092 -0.09)
1-0 @ 2.2% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 1.46% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-0 @ 1.1% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 1.04% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 10.65%
1-1 @ 6.2% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.37% (-0.131 -0.13)
0-0 @ 2.2% (0.069 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.37% (-0.085 -0.09)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 14.41%
1-2 @ 8.73% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.72% (0.267 0.27)
1-3 @ 8.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 8.18% (0.247 0.25)
0-1 @ 6.19% (0.192 0.19)
1-4 @ 5.77% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-4 @ 5.76% (0.172 0.17)
2-3 @ 4.1% (-0.124 -0.12)
1-5 @ 3.25% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-5 @ 3.24% (0.096 0.1)
2-4 @ 2.89% (-0.089 -0.09)
2-5 @ 1.63% (-0.05 -0.05)
1-6 @ 1.52% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-6 @ 1.52% (0.045 0.04)
3-4 @ 0.96% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 4.28%
Total : 74.94%

How you voted: Excelsior vs Ajax

SBV Excelsior
15.6%
Draw
12.5%
Ajax
71.9%
32
Head to Head
Oct 16, 2022 7pm
Ajax
7-1
Excelsior
Sanchez (15'), Berghuis (26'), Brobbey (44', 59'), Tadic (65'), Bergwijn (75'), Kudus (81')
Apr 13, 2019 5.30pm
Ajax
6-2
Excelsior
Huntelaar (10', 40', 65'), Tadic (37', 60' pen.), Dolberg (75')
Mazraoui (4'), Ekkelenkamp (84')
El Hamdaoui (42'), Fortes (89')
Fortes (32'), Koolwijk (43'), El Hamdaoui (49')
Nov 11, 2018 1.30pm
Excelsior
1-7
Ajax
Messaoud (52')
Fortes (25'), Haspolat (25'), Matthys (43')
Van de Beek (31', 48'), Schone (44'), Dolberg (58'), Schouten (71' og.), Ziyech (79'), Neres (87')
May 6, 2018 1.30pm
Excelsior
1-2
Ajax
De Ligt (20' og.)
Kluivert (48'), Dolberg (53' pen.)
Dec 14, 2017 7.45pm
Ajax
3-1
Excelsior
De Jong (23'), Dolberg (57' pen.), Ziyech (86')
Veltman (39')
Van Duinen (40')
Koolwijk (6'), Fortes (45'), Faik (57'), de Wijs (59'), van Duinen (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV1211014093133
2Feyenoord1384131131828
3FC UtrechtUtrecht119112011928
4Ajax1182125111426
5FC Twente1264224111322
6Go Ahead Eagles135351820-218
7AZ AlkmaarAZ125252314917
8Fortuna SittardSittard125251316-317
9NECNijmegen125161910916
10Willem II124351312115
11NAC BredaNAC Breda125071221-915
12Heerenveen134271326-1314
13Heracles133461425-1113
14Groningen123361219-712
15PEC Zwolle123361422-812
16Sparta RotterdamSparta122551218-611
17Almere CityAlmere City13139630-246
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1312101233-215


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