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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 10.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-3 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
10.65% ( -0.44) | 14.41% ( -0.17) | 74.94% ( 0.61) |
Both teams to score 59.47% ( -1.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.38% ( -0.5) | 26.62% ( 0.51) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.99% ( -0.64) | 47.01% ( 0.65) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.26% ( -1.11) | 36.74% ( 1.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.47% ( -1.13) | 73.53% ( 1.13) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.01% ( -0) | 5.99% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
77.15% ( -0.01) | 22.85% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 2.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.65% | 1-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.27% Total : 14.41% | 1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 8.19% ( 0) 0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0) 0-4 @ 5.76% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.12) 1-5 @ 3.25% ( -0) 0-5 @ 3.24% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 2.89% ( -0.09) 2-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.05) 1-6 @ 1.52% ( -0) 0-6 @ 1.52% ( 0.04) 3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.28% Total : 74.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
4 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
7 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
15 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |