Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille1 - 1Sturm Graz
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Lille 2-2 Rennes
Sunday, March 10 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Sunday, March 10 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz
Sunday, March 10 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Sunday, March 10 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
We said: Lille 2-0 Sturm Graz (Lille win 5-0 on aggregate)
Lille have one foot in the quarter-finals following the first leg but may also have one eye on Sunday's Ligue 1 clash with Brest, meaning that Les Dogues must warn against complacency on Thursday. Sturm Graz will travel to Decathlon Arena in hope more than expectation for this second-leg contest, and we believe that the Austrians will quietly bow out of Europe in Northern France. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
56.5% ( 0.47) | 23.53% ( -0.22) | 19.96% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 50.01% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.03% ( 0.56) | 49.97% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.05% ( 0.5) | 71.95% ( -0.5) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.51% ( 0.38) | 17.49% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.02% ( 0.66) | 47.98% ( -0.65) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.61% ( 0.05) | 39.38% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.92% ( 0.05) | 76.08% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
Lille 56.5%
Sturm Graz 19.96%
Draw 23.53%
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.67% Total : 56.5% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.91% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.38% Total : 19.96% |
How you voted: Lille vs Sturm Graz
Lille
85.9%Draw
7.8%Sturm Graz
6.3%64
Head to Head
Mar 7, 2024 5.45pm
