Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 43.95%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 27.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.