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J1 League | Gameweek 20
Jun 26, 2024 at 11am UK
Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Cerezo
1 - 0
Sagan Tosu

Tezuka (8' og.)
Tanaka (55')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's J1 League clash between Cerezo Osaka and Sagan Tosu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Jubilo Iwata 1-1 Cerezo
Saturday, June 22 at 10.30am in J1 League
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 3-0 Kyoto Sanga
Saturday, June 22 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Sagan Tosu

Cerezo come into this game as strong favourites to win having enjoyed a much better first half of the season in comparison to their visitors, and just one defeat in the last eight meetings between these two leads us to believe the hosts will secure all three points from this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 48.5%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerezo Osaka in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Cerezo Osaka.

Result
Cerezo OsakaDrawSagan Tosu
48.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01) 25.09% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 26.41% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.85% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.01% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)49.99% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.03% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)71.98% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.37% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)20.64% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.8% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)53.2% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.59% (0.0040000000000049 0)33.41% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.96% (0.0010000000000012 0)70.04% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Cerezo Osaka 48.5%
    Sagan Tosu 26.41%
    Draw 25.08%
Cerezo OsakaDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.88%
2-1 @ 9.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.59% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 4.95% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 4.52% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.78% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 48.5%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 6.9% (0.0029999999999992 0)
2-2 @ 5.16%
3-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.08%
0-1 @ 7.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.14% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 2.39% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.89%
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 26.41%

How you voted: Cerezo vs Sagan Tosu

Cerezo Osaka
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Sagan Tosu
16.7%
6
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2024 6am
Gameweek 4
Sagan Tosu
0-2
Cerezo

Horigome (42')
Bueno (48'), Shibayama (64')
Ceara (80')
Shibayama (86')
Jul 8, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 20
Sagan Tosu
2-1
Cerezo
Horigome (64'), Togashi (90+3')
Iwasaki (39'), Horigome (79')
Ceara (13')
Mar 12, 2023 5am
Sep 10, 2022 11am
Gameweek 29
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (52'), Patric (90+3')
Honda (82')
May 3, 2022 7am
Gameweek 11
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Cerezo
Fujita (83')
Tashiro (71')
Mendes (73' pen.)
Okuno (52')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vissel KobeVissel Kobe36208857352268
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima361811766392765
3Machida Zelvia36189952312163
4Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka361612845341160
5Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers361611955401559
6Tokyo Verdy36141394746155
7Cerezo OsakaCerezo361313104343052
8FC Tokyo36149134949051
9Yokohama F MarinosYokohama36147155858049
10Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa361211134944547
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus36145174244-247
12Avispa Fukuoka361114113135-447
13Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki361113125852646
14Kyoto Sanga361210144354-1146
15Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare36129155152-145
16Albirex Niigata361011154458-1441
17Kashiwa ReysolReysol36913143849-1140
18Jubilo Iwata3698194564-1935
19Consadole SapporoConsadole36810184161-2034
20Sagan Tosu3685234268-2629


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