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J1 League | Gameweek 20
Jul 8, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Sagan Tosu
2 - 1
Cerezo

Horigome (64'), Togashi (90+3')
Iwasaki (39'), Horigome (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ceara (13')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's J1 League clash between Sagan Tosu and Cerezo Osaka, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 1-2 Urawa
Saturday, July 1 at 11am in J1 League

Cerezo Osaka

All competitions
Last Game: Cerezo 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka
Friday, June 30 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Sagan Tosu 1-1 Cerezo Osaka

 Despite both sides tasting defeat last week, they have both had solid records in recent weeks, so we can see this one being a closely-fought contest. The two sides have scored and conceded a similar amount of goals so far this campaign, suggesting that there is not a lot to split the teams. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Sagan TosuDrawCerezo Osaka
34.25% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 26.55% (0.00099999999999767 0) 39.21% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.18% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.31% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)52.68% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.67% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)74.33% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.79% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)29.21% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.84% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)65.16% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.71% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)26.29% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.58% (0.00099999999999767 0)61.41% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Score Analysis
    Sagan Tosu 34.25%
    Cerezo Osaka 39.21%
    Draw 26.54%
Sagan TosuDrawCerezo Osaka
1-0 @ 9.45%
2-1 @ 7.77% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 5.82% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-1 @ 3.19% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.39% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 34.25%
1-1 @ 12.62%
0-0 @ 7.68% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 5.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.54%
0-1 @ 10.26% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.43% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 6.85% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 3.76% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 3.05% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.31% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.25%
0-4 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 39.21%

How you voted: Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo

Sagan Tosu
16.7%
Draw
0.0%
Cerezo Osaka
83.3%
6
Head to Head
Mar 12, 2023 5am
Gameweek 4
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Sep 10, 2022 11am
Gameweek 29
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (52'), Patric (90+3')
Honda (82')
May 3, 2022 7am
Gameweek 11
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Cerezo
Fujita (83')
Tashiro (71')
Mendes (73' pen.)
Okuno (52')
Jul 24, 2021 11am
Gameweek 22
Sagan Tosu
3-3
Cerezo
Sakai (1'), Koyamatsu (8'), Higuchi (45+1')
Iino (51')
Kato (18', 69'), Sakamoto (87' pen.)
Matsuda (65'), Matsuda (90+5')
Apr 2, 2021 11am
Gameweek 7
Cerezo
1-0
Sagan Tosu
Okuno (46')

Sento (42'), Seok-Ho (55'), Dudu (81')
Seok-Ho (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vissel KobeVissel Kobe38219861362572
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima381911872432968
3Machida Zelvia381991054342066
4Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka381812849351466
5Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers381811960411965
6Tokyo Verdy381414105151056
7FC Tokyo38159145351254
8Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki381313126657952
9Yokohama F MarinosYokohama38157166162-152
10Cerezo OsakaCerezo381313124348-552
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus38155184447-350
12Avispa Fukuoka381214123338-550
13Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa381212144945448
14Kyoto Sanga381211154355-1247
15Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare38129175358-545
16Albirex Niigata381012164459-1542
17Kashiwa ReysolReysol38914153951-1241
18Jubilo Iwata38108204768-2138
19Consadole SapporoConsadole38910194366-2337
20Sagan Tosu38105234868-2035
> J1 League Full Table


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