La Liga | Gameweek 4
Sep 2, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alaves1 - 0Valencia
We said: Alaves 1-1 Valencia
Alaves were impressive in their last home match against Sevilla, and we are expecting them to be a difficult side to beat at Mendizorrotza Stadium this season. Valencia are still short of firepower, so we can see a low-scoring draw taking place this weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 35.74%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (12.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.
| Result | ||
| Alaves | Draw | Valencia |
35.74% ( -0.34) | 30.27% ( -0.1) | 33.99% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 41.41% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
