Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
59.03% ( -0.13) | 22.89% ( -0.07) | 18.08% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 48.83% ( 0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.08% ( 0.6) | 49.92% ( -0.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.09% ( 0.53) | 71.91% ( -0.53) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.42% ( 0.17) | 16.58% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.62% ( 0.3) | 46.38% ( -0.3) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.53% ( 0.6) | 41.46% ( -0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.03% ( 0.52) | 77.97% ( -0.52) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 12.35% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.93% Total : 59.02% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.88% | 0-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.91% Total : 18.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 26 |
4 | Villarreal | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
5 | Osasuna | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 20 |
8 | Real Sociedad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Mallorca | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 18 |
10 | GironaGirona | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
13 | Sevilla | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
14 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
15 | AlavesAlaves | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
17 | Getafe | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
18 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 9 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |