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La Liga | Gameweek 22
Jan 28, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Valencia logo

Atletico
2 - 0
Valencia

Lino (45+5'), Depay (57')
Molina (49'), Niguez (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Sevilla
Thursday, January 25 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Valencia

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, January 20 at 5.30pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Valencia

 It is almost 13 years since Valencia last beat Atletico away in the league, so it is very difficult to back them to win this game even considering their strong form. Atletico's home record this season has been excellent, meanwhile, and we are expecting Simeone's side to edge a close game here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 20.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
55.85% (0.802 0.8) 24.02% (-0.357 -0.36) 20.13% (-0.445 -0.45)
Both teams to score 48.81% (0.391 0.39)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.3% (0.86 0.86)51.7% (-0.86 -0.86)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.52% (0.739 0.74)73.48% (-0.741 -0.74)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.63% (0.628 0.63)18.37% (-0.629 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.5% (1.055 1.06)49.5% (-1.056 -1.06)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.79% (0.018999999999998 0.02)40.2% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.16% (0.016999999999999 0.02)76.84% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 55.84%
    Valencia 20.13%
    Draw 24.02%
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
1-0 @ 12.51% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-0 @ 10.6% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.66% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.99% (0.155 0.16)
3-1 @ 5.46% (0.143 0.14)
4-0 @ 2.54% (0.115 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.49% (0.066 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.106 0.11)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 55.84%
1-1 @ 11.4% (-0.15 -0.15)
0-0 @ 7.39% (-0.257 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.4% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 24.02%
0-1 @ 6.73% (-0.23 -0.23)
1-2 @ 5.2% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 0.93% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.29%
Total : 20.13%

How you voted: Atletico vs Valencia

Atletico Madrid
83.5%
Draw
12.2%
Valencia
4.3%
115
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Valencia
3-0
Atletico
Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')
> Preview
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
> Preview
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
> Preview
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 13
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atletico MadridAtletico18125133122141
2Real Madrid18124241182340
3Barcelona19122551222938
4Athletic Bilbao19106329171236
5Villarreal188643430430
6Mallorca199371921-230
7Real Sociedad187471613325
8GironaGirona187472625125
9Real BetisBetis186752122-125
10Osasuna186752327-425
11Celta Vigo187382728-124
12Rayo Vallecano185762021-122
13Las PalmasLas Palmas186482327-422
14Sevilla186482027-722
15Leganes184681728-1118
16AlavesAlaves184592130-917
17Getafe183781115-416
18Espanyol1843111630-1415
19Valencia172691626-1012
20Real ValladolidValladolid1833121237-2512
> La Liga Full Table


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