Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 15.62%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.54%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
61.39% | 22.98% | 15.62% |
Both teams to score 43.81% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.93% | 54.07% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.51% | 75.49% |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.77% | 17.22% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.48% | 47.52% |
Valencia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.93% | 47.07% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.46% | 82.54% |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
1-0 @ 14.26% 2-0 @ 12.54% 2-1 @ 9.45% 3-0 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 5.54% 4-0 @ 3.23% 4-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 2.09% 5-0 @ 1.14% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.44% Total : 61.39% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 0-0 @ 8.11% 2-2 @ 3.56% Other @ 0.57% Total : 22.98% | 0-1 @ 6.11% 1-2 @ 4.05% 0-2 @ 2.3% 1-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.15% Total : 15.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 52 | 87 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |