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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Oxford United

Carlisle
1 - 3
Oxford Utd

McCalmont (71')
Moxon (27'), Neal (31'), Mellish (43'), Garner (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Harris (39', 47'), Goodrham (67')
Bennett (53'), Smyth (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League One

Oxford United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Oxford United

 Carlisle have plenty of new faces in the squad at the moment which should provide the team with additional quality to cause problems this weekend. However, bedding several new players in at once is no easy feat, which could be the advantage that Oxford need to take three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
37.76% (-0.064 -0.06) 26.15% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 36.1% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Both teams to score 53.72% (0.055 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.18% (0.067999999999998 0.07)50.81% (-0.07 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.3% (0.060000000000002 0.06)72.7% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)26.23% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)61.33% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.82% (0.079999999999998 0.08)27.18% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.42% (0.104 0.1)62.58% (-0.105 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 37.76%
    Oxford United 36.1%
    Draw 26.14%
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
1-0 @ 9.54% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.38% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.85% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 37.76%
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.42% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 9.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.1% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.05% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.52% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.63% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.15% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 36.1%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Oxford Utd

Carlisle United
28.6%
Draw
0.0%
Oxford United
71.4%
7
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Oxford Utd
1-0
Carlisle
Harris (76')
Harris (39'), O'Donkor (90+6')

Guy (51'), McCalmont (59'), Back (62'), Huntington (73'), Mellish (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2016 3pm
Carlisle
0-2
Oxford Utd

Miller (66')
Maguire (4' pen.), Sercombe (74')
Maguire (18'), Wright (82')
Dec 12, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
1-1
Carlisle
MacDonald (34')
Dunkley (45' og.)
Joyce (18')
Mar 28, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
2-1
Carlisle
Hoban (38'), Vassell (80')
Baldock (54')
Corry (9')
Acrhibald-Henville (66'), Buddle (77')
Acrhibald-Henville (68')
Oct 25, 2014 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Oxford Utd
Beck (73'), Asamoah (89')
Marrow (50')
Hylton (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton2511593839-138
10Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
11Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
12Charlton AthleticCharlton249782925434
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Blackpool2571083437-331
15Stevenage248791922-331
16Exeter CityExeter2594122832-431
17Wigan AthleticWigan2486102324-130
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2575134146-526
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
24Burton Albion2529142139-1815
> League One Full Table


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