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League One | Gameweek 25
Jan 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Accrington Stanley

Derby
4 - 0
Accrington

Barkhuizen (7', 46'), Hourihane (16'), McGoldrick (45+2' pen.)
Smith (11'), Sibley (29'), Forsyth (62')
Osula (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Whalley (13'), Rodgers (22'), Fernandes (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cambridge
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Morecambe 2-0 Accrington
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Accrington Stanley

 Derby have proven to be a tough team to beat, and after winning their last two home matches, we think that they will continue their impressive home form by recording a victory over an Accrington side who have won only one of their last 11 league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
61.03% (0.132 0.13) 21.6% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 17.37% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 51.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.32% (0.052999999999997 0.05)45.68% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32% (0.050999999999998 0.05)68% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (0.057000000000002 0.06)14.48% (-0.058 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.54% (0.112 0.11)42.46% (-0.114 -0.11)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.19% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)39.81% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.52% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)76.48% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 61.02%
    Accrington Stanley 17.37%
    Draw 21.6%
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
1-0 @ 11.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.76% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.91%
3-0 @ 6.93% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.35% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.29% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 61.02%
1-1 @ 10.26% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 21.6%
0-1 @ 5.31% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.73% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.45% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.37%

How you voted: Derby vs Accrington

Derby County
93.1%
Draw
3.4%
Accrington Stanley
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
Accrington
0-3
Derby
Osula (15', 39'), Barkhuizen (90+8')
Cashin (28')
Jan 26, 2019 12.30pm
Fourth Round
Accrington
0-1
Derby

Barlaser (3')
Barlaser (59')
Waghorn (78')
Bogle (86'), Jozefzoon (90'), Nugent (90')
Bogle (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Browns
32-41
Broncos
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe16122236181838
2Wrexham17104326111534
3Birmingham CityBirmingham15103228151333
4Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield1692525151029
6Barnsley177642622427
7Reading168352624227
8Bolton WanderersBolton168352526-127
9Lincoln CityLincoln177552321226
10Mansfield TownMansfield157352017324
11Exeter CityExeter167271415-123
12Charlton AthleticCharlton166461717022
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
14Bristol Rovers176381723-621
15Wigan AthleticWigan165561513220
16Blackpool175572430-620
17Stevenage165471116-519
18Northampton TownNorthampton174671923-418
19Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
21Leyton Orient164391420-615
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge163491425-1113
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1632111629-1311
24Burton Albion1615101529-148
> League One Full Table


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