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League One | Gameweek 25
Jan 2, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Accrington Stanley

Derby
4 - 0
Accrington

Barkhuizen (7', 46'), Hourihane (16'), McGoldrick (45+2' pen.)
Smith (11'), Sibley (29'), Forsyth (62')
Osula (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Whalley (13'), Rodgers (22'), Fernandes (35')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Accrington Stanley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Cambridge
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Morecambe 2-0 Accrington
Thursday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Accrington Stanley

 Derby have proven to be a tough team to beat, and after winning their last two home matches, we think that they will continue their impressive home form by recording a victory over an Accrington side who have won only one of their last 11 league games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
61.03% (0.132 0.13) 21.6% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 17.37% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 51.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.32% (0.052999999999997 0.05)45.68% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32% (0.050999999999998 0.05)68% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.52% (0.057000000000002 0.06)14.48% (-0.058 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.54% (0.112 0.11)42.46% (-0.114 -0.11)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.19% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)39.81% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.52% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)76.48% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 61.02%
    Accrington Stanley 17.37%
    Draw 21.6%
Derby CountyDrawAccrington Stanley
1-0 @ 11.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.76% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.91%
3-0 @ 6.93% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.35% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.29% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 61.02%
1-1 @ 10.26% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 21.6%
0-1 @ 5.31% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.73% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.45% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.4% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 17.37%

How you voted: Derby vs Accrington

Derby County
93.1%
Draw
3.4%
Accrington Stanley
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Oct 15, 2022 3pm
Accrington
0-3
Derby
Osula (15', 39'), Barkhuizen (90+8')
Cashin (28')
Jan 26, 2019 12.30pm
Fourth Round
Accrington
0-1
Derby

Barlaser (3')
Barlaser (59')
Waghorn (78')
Bogle (86'), Jozefzoon (90'), Nugent (90')
Bogle (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham25156437181951
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2445152444-2017
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814
> League One Full Table


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