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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
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Bolton
0 - 0
Derby


Bradley (61'), Aimson (89')
FT

Forsyth (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Exeter
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Forest Green
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County

 The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day. As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
47.08% (0.90000000000001 0.9) 26.7% (0.061 0.06) 26.22% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% (-0.88099999999999 -0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.64% (-0.784 -0.78)56.36% (0.78599999999999 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.62% (-0.637 -0.64)77.39% (0.64 0.64)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.05% (0.085000000000008 0.09)23.95% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.82% (0.12 0.12)58.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.99% (-1.225 -1.23)37.01% (1.228 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.2% (-1.238 -1.24)73.8% (1.242 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
    Derby County 26.22%
    Draw 26.7%
Bolton WanderersDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.66% (0.4 0.4)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.313 0.31)
2-1 @ 9% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.31% (0.159 0.16)
3-1 @ 4.29% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.54% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.53% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 47.07%
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.86% (0.264 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.144 -0.14)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 26.7%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.162 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.07% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.48% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 26.22%

How you voted: Bolton vs Derby

Bolton Wanderers
38.0%
Draw
24.0%
Derby County
38.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
> Match Report
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
Apr 9, 2016 3pm
Derby
4-1
Bolton
Russell (13', 77'), Ince (38'), Butterfield (69')
Thorne (81')
Clough (73' pen.)
Vela (21'), Moxey (63')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham27196246192763
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe29178455302559
3Wrexham29167643251855
4Stockport CountyStockport29148744281650
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield28146841261548
6Leyton Orient281351040251544
7Charlton AthleticCharlton2812883628844
8Reading28135104341244
9Bolton WanderersBolton29135114343044
10Barnsley29127104139243
11Stevenage2711792725240
12Lincoln CityLincoln29109103534139
13Blackpool2891184140138
14Mansfield TownMansfield27114123534137
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham28107113333037
16Wigan AthleticWigan2897122728-134
17Exeter CityExeter2995153346-1332
18Bristol Rovers2894152844-1631
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2986154555-1030
20Northampton TownNorthampton2979132845-1730
21Burton Albion29510143044-1425
22Crawley TownCrawley2766152748-2124
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2865172848-2023
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2857162950-2122
> League One Full Table


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