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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 51.49%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
Result | ||
Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
51.49% ( 2.86) | 26.96% ( -0.88) | 21.55% ( -1.98) |
Both teams to score 42.75% ( 0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.31% ( 1.28) | 60.69% ( -1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.24% ( 0.95) | 80.76% ( -0.95) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.2% ( 1.9) | 23.8% ( -1.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.04% ( 2.66) | 57.96% ( -2.66) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.11% ( -1.26) | 43.89% ( 1.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.96% ( -1.06) | 80.03% ( 1.06) |
Score Analysis |
Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
1-0 @ 14.99% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 10.76% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.24) 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.57) 3-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.34) 4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.29) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.2) Other @ 2.37% Total : 51.49% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.95% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.74) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.33) 0-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.44) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 1% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 55 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 43 |
3 | Salford City | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Port Vale | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 41 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
6 | Notts County | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 40 |
7 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 40 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 38 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 37 |
10 | Chesterfield | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 34 |
11 | MK Dons | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 34 |
12 | Bromley | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 34 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 31 |
14 | Gillingham | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 30 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 28 |
16 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 27 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 24 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 27 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
19 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 25 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 25 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 25 |
23 | Morecambe | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 20 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 18 |
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