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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 51.49%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
Result | ||
Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
51.49% ( 2.86) | 26.96% ( -0.88) | 21.55% ( -1.98) |
Both teams to score 42.75% ( 0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.31% ( 1.28) | 60.69% ( -1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.24% ( 0.95) | 80.76% ( -0.95) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.2% ( 1.9) | 23.8% ( -1.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.04% ( 2.66) | 57.96% ( -2.66) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.11% ( -1.26) | 43.89% ( 1.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.96% ( -1.06) | 80.03% ( 1.06) |
Score Analysis |
Barrow | Draw | Colchester United |
1-0 @ 14.99% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 10.76% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.24) 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.57) 3-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.34) 4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.29) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.2) Other @ 2.37% Total : 51.49% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.95% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.74) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.33) 0-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.44) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 1% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 46 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 46 |
4 | Port Vale | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 45 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 44 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 44 |
8 | Salford City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 42 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 36 |
11 | Bromley | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 35 |
12 | MK Dons | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 35 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 34 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 33 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
17 | Gillingham | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 31 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 29 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 28 |
21 | Newport CountyNewport | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 26 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 26 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 21 |
24 | Morecambe | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 20 |
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