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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 57.36%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 21.57% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
57.36% ( 0.15) | 21.08% ( -0.07) | 21.57% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 60.73% ( 0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.04% ( 0.22) | 36.96% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.85% ( 0.23) | 59.15% ( -0.23) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.23% ( 0.11) | 12.77% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.96% ( 0.23) | 39.04% ( -0.23) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.61% ( 0.05) | 30.39% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.42% ( 0.06) | 66.58% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.97% Total : 57.36% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.08% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.87% Total : 21.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |