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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 38.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.1%) and 3-1 (4.79%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
39.2% ( 0.87) | 22.09% ( -0.21) | 38.7% ( -0.66) |
Both teams to score 69.03% ( 0.86) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.9% ( 1.11) | 31.09% ( -1.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.5% ( 1.31) | 52.49% ( -1.31) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.18% ( 0.84) | 16.81% ( -0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.21% ( 1.49) | 46.78% ( -1.49) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.98% ( 0.2) | 17.01% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.84% ( 0.35) | 47.15% ( -0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.12) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.06) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.42% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.56% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.28) 1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.04) 3-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.34% Total : 38.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |