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Europa League
Athletic Bilbao logo
Europa League | League Stage
Oct 3, 2024 at 8pm UK
San Mames Barria
AZ Alkmaar

Athletic Bilbao
2 - 0
AZ

Williams (72'), Sancet (86')
Ruiz de Galarreta (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Maikuma (42'), van Bommel (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Athletic Bilbao and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Sevilla
Sunday, September 29 at 3.15pm in La Liga

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: AZ 1-2 Utrecht
Sunday, September 29 at 7pm in Eredivisie

We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-0 AZ Alkmaar

 Athletic rarely slip up at home, and after an impressive result against Roma, they could be very competitive in the Europa League this season. AZ made an excellent start claiming three points on home soil last midweek, but Elfsborg gave them plenty of trouble and they were beaten by Utrecht at the weekend, making them big underdogs here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAZ Alkmaar
30.34% (-0.548 -0.55) 26.16% (-0.32 -0.32) 43.49% (0.86199999999999 0.86)
Both teams to score 52.11% (0.737 0.74)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.82% (1.067 1.07)52.18% (-1.073 -1.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.1% (0.912 0.91)73.89% (-0.92 -0.92)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.42% (0.158 0.16)31.57% (-0.164 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.02% (0.184 0.18)67.97% (-0.18900000000001 -0.19)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.15% (0.898 0.9)23.84% (-0.905 -0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.97% (1.275 1.28)58.02% (-1.281 -1.28)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 30.34%
    AZ Alkmaar 43.49%
    Draw 26.16%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 8.68% (-0.336 -0.34)
2-1 @ 7.17% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-0 @ 5% (-0.17 -0.17)
3-1 @ 2.76% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.98% (0.047 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.92% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 30.34%
1-1 @ 12.44% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 7.53% (-0.326 -0.33)
2-2 @ 5.14% (0.097 0.1)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.16%
0-1 @ 10.79% (-0.17 -0.17)
1-2 @ 8.92% (0.13 0.13)
0-2 @ 7.74% (0.079 0.08)
1-3 @ 4.26% (0.172 0.17)
0-3 @ 3.7% (0.132 0.13)
2-3 @ 2.46% (0.109 0.11)
1-4 @ 1.53% (0.1 0.1)
0-4 @ 1.33% (0.08 0.08)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 43.49%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs AZ

Athletic Bilbao
82.6%
Draw
9.3%
AZ Alkmaar
8.1%
161
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2015 8.05pm
Group Stage
Athletic Bilbao
2-2
AZ
Sola (43'), Jose (47' pen.)
Merino (77')
Van Overeem (26'), Janssen (88')
Haye (55'), Gouweleeuw (63')
Oct 1, 2015 6pm
Group Stage
AZ
2-1
Athletic Bilbao
Henriksen (55'), Boveda (65' og.)
Johansson (47'), Coutinho (90')
Aduriz (75')
Gurpegi (50'), Iturraspe (53'), Garcia (71')
rhs 2.0
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