Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.47%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.27%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
66.47% ( -0.85) | 20.69% ( 0.39) | 12.83% ( 0.46) |
Both teams to score 43.62% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.49% ( -0.54) | 50.5% ( 0.54) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.57% ( -0.48) | 72.42% ( 0.48) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.65% ( -0.43) | 14.34% ( 0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.8% ( -0.84) | 42.19% ( 0.84) |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.92% ( 0.43) | 49.07% ( -0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.99% ( 0.31) | 84.01% ( -0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
1-0 @ 13.66% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 13.27% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.18% 5-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.09) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.23% Total : 66.46% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.56% Total : 20.69% | 0-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.58% Total : 12.83% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 19 | 31 | 38 |
2 | Real Madrid | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 36 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 35 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 32 |
5 | Villarreal | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 26 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
7 | Osasuna | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
8 | Mallorca | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 24 |
9 | GironaGirona | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 22 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 21 |
11 | Real BetisBetis | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 21 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
13 | Sevilla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 19 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Getafe | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 15 |
17 | Leganes | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
18 | Espanyol | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 13 |
19 | Valencia | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 34 | -23 | 9 |
> La Liga Full Table |