Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 28.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
Result | ||
Alaves | Draw | Barcelona |
28.29% ( -0.82) | 25.14% ( 0.25) | 46.57% ( 0.57) |
Both teams to score 54.12% ( -1.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51% ( -1.57) | 49% ( 1.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.92% ( -1.43) | 71.09% ( 1.43) |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.57% ( -1.41) | 31.44% ( 1.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.19% ( -1.66) | 67.81% ( 1.66) |
Barcelona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.93% ( -0.4) | 21.07% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.12% ( -0.62) | 53.88% ( 0.62) |
Score Analysis |
Alaves | Draw | Barcelona |
1-0 @ 7.66% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.83% Total : 28.29% | 1-1 @ 11.93% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.2) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.14% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.53) 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 4.83% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 4.17% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.55% Total : 46.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 41 |
2 | Barcelona | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 22 | 29 | 38 |
3 | Real Madrid | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 37 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 36 |
5 | Mallorca | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 30 |
6 | Villarreal | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 27 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 25 |
8 | GironaGirona | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
9 | Osasuna | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 25 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
11 | Real BetisBetis | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
12 | Sevilla | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 22 |
13 | Rayo Vallecano | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 21 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 19 |
15 | Leganes | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Getafe | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
17 | AlavesAlaves | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
18 | Espanyol | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 15 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
20 | Valencia | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 11 |
> La Liga Full Table |