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La Liga | Gameweek 33
Apr 27, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
3 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic really have to avoid defeat here if they are to stay in the top-four race, but it will be difficult considering Atletico's excellent home record this season. We were close to backing a narrow success for Simeone's side but have ultimately settled on a 1-1 draw, which would not be a bad result for either side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
43.85% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03) 25.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 30.49% (0.035999999999998 0.04)
Both teams to score 53.76% (0.034000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.93% (0.036000000000001 0.04)50.07% (-0.032999999999994 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.95% (0.032 0.03)72.04% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.24% (0.0049999999999955 0)22.76% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)56.44% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.6% (0.042999999999992 0.04)30.4% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.4% (0.051000000000002 0.05)66.6% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 43.85%
    Athletic Bilbao 30.49%
    Draw 25.66%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.03% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.45% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.74% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.65% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 43.85%
1-1 @ 12.19%
0-0 @ 6.92% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.66%
0-1 @ 8.24% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.9% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 30.49%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
65.2%
Draw
17.4%
Athletic Bilbao
17.4%
92
Head to Head
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona17122350193138
2Real Madrid16113234132136
3Atletico MadridAtletico16105130111935
4Athletic Bilbao1795326151132
5Villarreal157532725226
6Real Sociedad167361611524
7Osasuna166642225-324
8Mallorca177371620-424
9GironaGirona166462223-122
10Celta Vigo166372527-221
11Real BetisBetis165651820-221
12Rayo Vallecano155461516-119
13Sevilla165471723-619
14Las PalmasLas Palmas165382227-518
15Getafe163761113-216
16AlavesAlaves164391827-915
17Leganes163671423-915
18Espanyol1541101528-1313
19Valencia142481322-910
20Real ValladolidValladolid1623111134-239


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