Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
43.85% ( -0.03) | 25.66% ( -0) | 30.49% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 53.76% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.93% ( 0.04) | 50.07% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.95% ( 0.03) | 72.04% ( -0.03) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.24% ( 0) | 22.76% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.56% ( 0) | 56.44% ( 0) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.6% ( 0.04) | 30.4% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.4% ( 0.05) | 66.6% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.74% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 43.85% | 1-1 @ 12.19% 0-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.24% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 30.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 19 | 31 | 38 |
2 | Real Madrid | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 36 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 35 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 32 |
5 | Villarreal | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 26 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
7 | Osasuna | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
8 | Mallorca | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 24 |
9 | GironaGirona | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 22 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 21 |
11 | Real BetisBetis | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 21 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
13 | Sevilla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 19 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Getafe | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 15 |
17 | Leganes | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
18 | Espanyol | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 13 |
19 | Valencia | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 34 | -23 | 9 |
> La Liga Full Table |