Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
44.82% ( 0.29) | 24.71% ( 0.21) | 30.46% ( -0.49) |
Both teams to score 56.9% ( -0.95) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.03% ( -1.13) | 45.97% ( 1.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.72% ( -1.08) | 68.28% ( 1.08) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.41% ( -0.34) | 20.59% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.87% ( -0.54) | 53.13% ( 0.54) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.65% ( -0.88) | 28.35% ( 0.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.91% ( -1.13) | 64.09% ( 1.14) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.75% Total : 44.82% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.71% | 0-1 @ 7.36% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.71% Total : 30.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 52 | 87 |
2 | GironaGirona | 35 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 44 | 31 | 75 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 67 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 52 |
8 | Valencia | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 39 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
15 | Mallorca | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 35 |
16 | Celta Vigo | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 34 |
17 | Rayo Vallecano | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 34 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 26 |
R | Granada | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 34 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |