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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
69.9% ( 0.05) | 17.27% ( -0.01) | 12.83% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 55.23% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.85% ( -0.04) | 35.15% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.84% ( -0.04) | 57.16% ( 0.05) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.98% ( 0) | 9.02% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.28% | 30.72% ( -0) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.7% ( -0.08) | 39.29% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24% ( -0.07) | 76% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.68% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.62% 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.38% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.04% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.72% Total : 69.89% | 1-1 @ 7.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.27% | 1-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.31% 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.83% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 16 | 42 | 48 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 46 | 26 | 20 | 42 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 26 | 18 | 37 |
4 | Stuttgart | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 32 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 32 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 31 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 28 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 27 |
10 | Freiburg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 27 |
11 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 26 |
12 | Augsburg | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 25 |
13 | St Pauli | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 20 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 20 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Heidenheim | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 12 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 10 |
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