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Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Feb 3, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Werder Bremen logo

Mainz
0 - 1
Werder Bremen


Krauss (67'), Amiri (79'), Richter (87'), Caci (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ducksch (2')
Stark (35'), Friedl (45'), Bittencourt (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz
Friday, January 26 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

All competitions
Last Game: Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen

 Werder Bremen cruised to victory in their last meeting with Mainz, but a tighter affair could be on the cards on Saturday, with the onus being on the hosts to take to game to the visitors as they bid to end their miserable winless run. The two sides have struggled to keep clean sheets this term so there could be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends, but Bremen seem to have the greater threat in the final third and should ultimately find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.59%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
51.59% (1.437 1.44) 23.75% (0.17 0.17) 24.66% (-1.608 -1.61)
Both teams to score 55.48% (-2.195 -2.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.28% (-2.156 -2.16)45.72% (2.157 2.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.96% (-2.085 -2.09)68.04% (2.085 2.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.26% (-0.26600000000001 -0.27)17.73% (0.268 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.59% (-0.467 -0.47)48.41% (0.467 0.47)
Werder Bremen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.44% (-2.44 -2.44)32.56% (2.441 2.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.91% (-2.832 -2.83)69.09% (2.833 2.83)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 51.59%
    Werder Bremen 24.66%
    Draw 23.74%
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
1-0 @ 9.99% (0.808 0.81)
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.64% (0.629 0.63)
3-1 @ 5.59% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.322 0.32)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.218 -0.22)
4-1 @ 2.42% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.15% (0.121 0.12)
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.107 -0.11)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 51.59%
1-1 @ 11.2% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 5.77% (0.514 0.51)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.329 -0.33)
3-3 @ 1.17% (-0.169 -0.17)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.74%
0-1 @ 6.48% (0.167 0.17)
1-2 @ 6.29% (-0.321 -0.32)
0-2 @ 3.64% (-0.153 -0.15)
1-3 @ 2.35% (-0.292 -0.29)
2-3 @ 2.03% (-0.273 -0.27)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 24.66%

How you voted: Mainz vs Werder Bremen

Mainz 05
20.8%
Draw
16.7%
Werder Bremen
62.5%
24
Head to Head
Sep 2, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 3
Werder Bremen
4-0
Mainz
Ducksch (3' pen.), Stage (53'), Bittencourt (82'), Njinmah (83')
Stage (10'), Friedl (55')

Hanche-Olsen (2'), van den Berg (65'), van den Berg (65+65')
> Preview
Apr 8, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
Mainz
2-2
Werder Bremen
Ajorque (85'), Weiper (90+3')
Stage (87'), Fullkrug (90+5')
> Preview
Oct 15, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Werder Bremen
0-2
Mainz
Ingvartsen (36'), Jae-sung (66')
> Preview
Apr 21, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 30
Werder Bremen
0-1
Mainz

Sargent (63')
Szalai (16')
Boetius (66'), Zentner (83')
> Preview
Dec 19, 2020 2.30pm
Gameweek 13
Mainz
0-1
Werder Bremen

Barreiro (73'), Niakhate (82')
Dinkci (90')
Eggestein (50'), Gross (90+5')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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