Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Feb 3, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen cruised to victory in their last meeting with Mainz, but a tighter affair could be on the cards on Saturday, with the onus being on the hosts to take to game to the visitors as they bid to end their miserable winless run.
The two sides have struggled to keep clean sheets this term so there could be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends, but Bremen seem to have the greater threat in the final third and should ultimately find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming another three points.
Read more.
Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.59% . A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.7% .
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.64%) . The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (6.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%) . The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
Result Mainz 05 Draw Werder Bremen 51.59% ( 1.44) 23.75% ( 0.17) 24.66% ( -1.61)
Both teams to score 55.48% ( -2.2)
54.28% ( -2.16) 45.72% ( 2.16)
31.96% ( -2.09) 68.04% ( 2.09)
82.26% ( -0.27) 17.73% ( 0.27)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 51.59% ( -0.47) 48.41% ( 0.47)
67.44% ( -2.44) 32.56% ( 2.44)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 30.91% ( -2.83) 69.09% ( 2.83)
Mainz 05 51.59%
Werder Bremen 24.66%
Draw 23.74%
Mainz 05 Draw Werder Bremen 1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.81) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.63) 3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.64% Total : 51.59% 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.33) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.74% 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.32) 0-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.29) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.52% Total : 24.66%
How you voted: Mainz vs Werder Bremen
Mainz 05
Draw
Werder Bremen
24
rhs 2.0
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