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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
42.46% ( -0.88) | 24.56% ( 0.11) | 32.97% ( 0.78) |
Both teams to score 58.52% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.67% ( -0.23) | 44.33% ( 0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.29% ( -0.23) | 66.71% ( 0.23) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.03% ( -0.49) | 20.97% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.28% ( -0.78) | 53.72% ( 0.79) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.05% ( 0.36) | 25.95% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.04% ( 0.48) | 60.96% ( -0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.7% Total : 42.46% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.56% | 1-2 @ 7.73% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.44% Total : 32.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 38 |
2 | Wrexham | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 15 | 34 |
3 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 33 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 30 |
5 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 29 |
6 | Barnsley | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 27 |
7 | Reading | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 27 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 27 |
9 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 23 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 22 |
13 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
14 | Bristol Rovers | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
15 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 |
16 | Blackpool | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 20 |
17 | Stevenage | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 19 |
18 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 16 |
21 | Leyton Orient | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 15 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
24 | Burton Albion | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |