Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.