Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.8%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 8.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.34%) and 0-3 (10.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
8.44% ( -0.06) | 15.76% ( -0.16) | 75.8% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 43.86% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.69% ( 0.55) | 41.31% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.29% ( 0.55) | 63.71% ( -0.55) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.31% ( 0.23) | 51.69% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.2% ( 0.15) | 85.8% ( -0.15) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.8% ( 0.19) | 9.2% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.84% ( 0.45) | 31.16% ( -0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 8.44% | 1-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.57% Total : 15.76% | 0-2 @ 13.53% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.19) 0-3 @ 10.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.1% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 6.42% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 4.24% ( 0.07) 0-5 @ 3.06% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 2.02% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1.22% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.41% Total : 75.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 35 |
6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 29 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 22 |
14 | Nacional | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 12 |
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