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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Gabon national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stade de Franceville
Morocco national football team

Gabon
1 - 5
Morocco

Bouanga (4')
Allevinah (7'), Bouanga (35'), Kanga (49'), Aubameyang (82')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Harkass (17'), Diaz (20', 23'), En-Nesyri (81'), Saibari (90')
Ben Seghir (59'), Saibari (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gabon and Morocco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gabon

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Lesotho 0-2 Gabon
Tuesday, October 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1Morocco337
2Gabon315
3Comoros3-23
4Ghana3-21

Morocco

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: CAR 0-4 Morocco
Tuesday, October 15 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Gabon 1-2 Morocco

 While Morocco will be playing for pride, the stakes are high for Gabon, who sit just four points above third-placed Central African Republic heading into the final two qualifying games. Mouyouma's men are much improved since losing against Morocco in September's reverse fixture, but given the gulf in quality and class between the two nations, we fancy the Atlas Lions to claim all three points and maintain their perfect record in the qualifiers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Gabon had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.26%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Gabon win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morocco would win this match.

Result
GabonDrawMorocco
29.5% (-0.267 -0.27) 28.73% (-0.233 -0.23) 41.76% (0.495 0.49)
Both teams to score 44.32% (0.498 0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.11% (0.67299999999999 0.67)61.89% (-0.67599999999999 -0.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.34% (0.494 0.49)81.65% (-0.498 -0.5)
Gabon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.64% (0.161 0.16)37.36% (-0.166 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.85% (0.157 0.16)74.14% (-0.16200000000001 -0.16)
Morocco Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.76% (0.61 0.61)29.24% (-0.615 -0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.8% (0.747 0.75)65.19% (-0.75099999999999 -0.75)
Score Analysis
    Gabon 29.49%
    Morocco 41.76%
    Draw 28.73%
GabonDrawMorocco
1-0 @ 10.75% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-1 @ 6.51% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 5.3% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-1 @ 2.14% (0.011 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.74% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.31% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 29.49%
1-1 @ 13.22% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 10.92% (-0.28 -0.28)
2-2 @ 4% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 28.73%
0-1 @ 13.43% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-2 @ 8.26% (0.072999999999999 0.07)
1-2 @ 8.13% (0.109 0.11)
0-3 @ 3.39% (0.087 0.09)
1-3 @ 3.33% (0.1 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.64% (0.056 0.06)
0-4 @ 1.04% (0.044 0.04)
1-4 @ 1.03% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 1.52%
Total : 41.76%

How you voted: Gabon vs Morocco

Gabon
16.7%
Draw
18.5%
Morocco
64.8%
54
Head to Head
Sep 6, 2024 8pm
Group Stage
Morocco
4-1
Gabon
Ziyech (10' pen., 26' pen.), Diaz (59'), El Kaabi (82')
Abqar (15')
Aubameyang (40' pen.)
> Preview
Jan 18, 2022 7pm
Group Stage
Gabon
2-2
Morocco
Allevinah (21'), Aguerd (81' og.)
Obiang (36'), Boupendza (45+1')
Boufal (74' pen.), Hakimi (84')
Amrabat (38')
> Preview
Oct 15, 2019 8pm
International Friendlies
Morocco
2-3
Gabon
Amrabat (32', 69' pen.)
Boupendza (22'), Bouanga (48'), Chebake (81' og.)
Bouanga (44'), Aubameyang (49')
rhs 2.0
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