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Champions League
Lille
Champions League | League Stage
Dec 11, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
3 - 2
Sturm Graz

Sahraoui (37'), Bakker (45+2'), Arnar Haraldsson (81')
Bakker (74')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Kiteishvili (45+5'), Biereth (47')
Chukwuani (9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Lille and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Lille 3-1 Brest
Friday, December 6 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Swarovski 0-3 Sturm Graz
Saturday, December 7 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

We said: Lille 2-1 Sturm Graz

 On a 14-game unbeaten run having beaten some of Europe's elite along the way, failing to win at home to one of the weakest clubs in the competition would be a huge shock, and Lille should get the job done. It may not be straightforward against a Sturm side riding high under interim boss Saumel though, and the visitors could make this difficult for Les Dogues, even if defeat is likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawSturm Graz
47.84% (2.343 2.34) 24.68% (-0.576 -0.58) 27.48% (-1.764 -1.76)
Both teams to score 55.02% (0.652 0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.45% (1.42 1.42)47.55% (-1.414 -1.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.25% (1.3 1.3)69.76% (-1.294 -1.29)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.07% (1.599 1.6)19.93% (-1.593 -1.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.92% (2.511 2.51)52.08% (-2.506 -2.51)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.72% (-0.566 -0.57)31.29% (0.573 0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.36% (-0.663 -0.66)67.64% (0.669 0.67)
Score Analysis
    Lille 47.83%
    Sturm Graz 27.48%
    Draw 24.68%
LilleDrawSturm Graz
1-0 @ 10.05% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 9.43% (0.219 0.22)
2-0 @ 8.11% (0.312 0.31)
3-1 @ 5.07% (0.354 0.35)
3-0 @ 4.36% (0.368 0.37)
3-2 @ 2.94% (0.162 0.16)
4-1 @ 2.04% (0.233 0.23)
4-0 @ 1.76% (0.225 0.23)
4-2 @ 1.19% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 47.83%
1-1 @ 11.68% (-0.3 -0.3)
0-0 @ 6.24% (-0.375 -0.38)
2-2 @ 5.48% (0.042 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.14% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.68%
0-1 @ 7.25% (-0.559 -0.56)
1-2 @ 6.79% (-0.285 -0.29)
0-2 @ 4.21% (-0.396 -0.4)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.154 -0.15)
2-3 @ 2.12% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.63% (-0.182 -0.18)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 27.48%

How you voted: Lille vs Sturm Graz

Lille
84.7%
Draw
11.5%
Sturm Graz
3.8%
209
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