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Luton Town
Championship | Gameweek 10
Oct 19, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Watford logo

Luton
3 - 0
Watford

Clark (11'), Morris (47'), Brown (90+1')
Clark (16'), Doughty (35'), Hashioka (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Issouf Bayo (6'), Porteous (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sheff Utd 2-0 Luton
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Luton Town 2-1 Watford

While Watford may be enjoying a strong start under Cleverley, we cannot ignore their form away from Vicarage Road. With that in mind, Luton could edge this contest by the odd goal in three, kick-starting their campaign and relieving some pressure on Edwards in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.

Result
Luton TownDrawWatford
43.34% (0.381 0.38) 25% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08) 31.66% (-0.295 -0.29)
Both teams to score 56.51% (0.159 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.26% (0.26300000000001 0.26)46.74% (-0.261 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31% (0.246 0.25)69% (-0.244 -0.24)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.43% (0.288 0.29)21.58% (-0.287 -0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.34% (0.441 0.44)54.66% (-0.439 -0.44)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.06% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)27.94% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.43% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)63.57% (0.081000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 43.34%
    Watford 31.66%
    Draw 24.99%
Luton TownDrawWatford
1-0 @ 9.25% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.04% (0.041 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.09% (0.045 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.62% (0.061000000000001 0.06)
3-0 @ 3.62% (0.054 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.95% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.77% (0.039 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.033 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.13% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 43.34%
1-1 @ 11.78% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.03% (-0.066 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.76% (0.016 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.99%
0-1 @ 7.69% (-0.098 -0.1)
1-2 @ 7.52% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.9% (-0.072 -0.07)
1-3 @ 3.19% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.45% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.08% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.02% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 31.66%

How you voted: Luton vs Watford

Luton Town
45.3%
Draw
14.0%
Watford
40.7%
86
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 39
Luton
2-0
Watford
Osho (28'), Campbell (90+1')
Oct 23, 2022 12pm
Gameweek 17
Watford
4-0
Luton
Davis (3'), Troost-Ekong (45'), Pedro (57'), Sarr (79')
Apr 17, 2021 12.30pm
Gameweek 42
Luton
1-0
Watford
Collins (78' pen.)
Bradley (28'), Berry (80')

Femenia (72'), Troost-Ekong (75'), Sierralta (76')
Femenia (88')
Sep 26, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 3
Watford
1-0
Luton
Pedro (35')

Pearson (75'), Norrington-Davies (90+3')
Apr 9, 2006 3pm
Watford
1-1
Luton
King (36')
Doyley (76'), King (90')
Brkovic (73')
Showunmi (37'), Howard (42'), Heikkinen (51')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds17105231121935
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1711422491535
3Burnley179622161533
4Sunderland1796226121433
5Watford179262624229
6Middlesbrough178362920927
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom176921811727
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn167452017325
9Millwall166641914524
10Norwich CityNorwich175753125622
11Swansea CitySwansea176471615122
12Bristol City175752021-122
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds176472026-622
14Stoke CityStoke175661920-121
15Derby CountyDerby175572122-120
16Luton TownLuton175391829-1118
17Coventry CityCoventry174582225-317
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd174581927-817
19Preston North EndPreston173861624-817
20Plymouth ArgylePlymouth174581834-1617
21Cardiff CityCardiff174491526-1116
22Hull City173681623-715
23Queens Park RangersQPR172871526-1114
24Portsmouth152671628-1212


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