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Potential new EFL Cup header

EFL Cup
Nottingham Forest logo
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 28, 2024 at 8pm UK
The City Ground
Newcastle logo

Nott'm Forest
1 - 1
Newcastle

Silva (50')
Silva (53'), Abbott (54'), Moreno (72'), Dominguez (77'), Sangare (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Willock (1')
Guimaraes (53'), Hall (67')
Newcastle win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup clash between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nottingham Forest

All competitions
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, August 24 at 3pm in Premier League

Newcastle United

All competitions
Last Game: Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle
Sunday, August 25 at 2pm in Premier League

We said: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Newcastle United

 Fewer first team and squad players available may force Howe to field a strong Newcastle side here, and that could be to their advantage as they look to avenge Forest for those two second round cup defeats in the late 2010s. The hosts have made a good start in the league, but they will certainly face a sterner test here than the one offered to them by Southampton at the weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 2-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
Nottingham ForestDrawNewcastle United
31.86% (-1.137 -1.14) 23.63% (0.123 0.12) 44.5% (1.015 1.02)
Both teams to score 61.42% (-0.949 -0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.65% (-1.038 -1.04)40.35% (1.042 1.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.27% (-1.078 -1.08)62.72% (1.082 1.08)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.3% (-1.162 -1.16)24.69% (1.164 1.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.76% (-1.655 -1.65)59.23% (1.658 1.66)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.56%18.44% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.39%49.61% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Score Analysis
    Nottingham Forest 31.86%
    Newcastle United 44.5%
    Draw 23.62%
Nottingham ForestDrawNewcastle United
2-1 @ 7.53% (-0.149 -0.15)
1-0 @ 6.37% (0.091 0.09)
2-0 @ 4.45% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-1 @ 3.51% (-0.193 -0.19)
3-2 @ 2.97% (-0.163 -0.16)
3-0 @ 2.08% (-0.114 -0.11)
4-1 @ 1.23% (-0.113 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.04% (-0.095 -0.1)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 31.86%
1-1 @ 10.76% (0.15 0.15)
2-2 @ 6.37% (-0.126 -0.13)
0-0 @ 4.55% (0.215 0.22)
3-3 @ 1.67% (-0.093 -0.09)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.62%
1-2 @ 9.1% (0.13 0.13)
0-1 @ 7.7% (0.363 0.36)
0-2 @ 6.51% (0.306 0.31)
1-3 @ 5.13% (0.073 0.07)
0-3 @ 3.67% (0.173 0.17)
2-3 @ 3.59% (-0.071 -0.07)
1-4 @ 2.17% (0.031 0.03)
0-4 @ 1.55% (0.073 0.07)
2-4 @ 1.52% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 44.5%

How you voted: Nott'm Forest vs Newcastle

Nottingham Forest
29.9%
Draw
16.4%
Newcastle United
53.7%
134
Head to Head
Feb 10, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 24
Nott'm Forest
2-3
Newcastle
Elanga (26'), Hudson-Odoi (45+6')
Gibbs-White (59')
Guimaraes (10', 66'), Schar (43')
Botman (58'), Wilson (90+4')
> Match Report
Dec 26, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 19
Newcastle
1-3
Nott'm Forest
Isak (23' pen.)
Gordon (27'), Guimaraes (85'), Schar (88')
Wood (45+1', 53', 60')
Sangare (26'), Montiel (27'), Williams (84')
> Match Report
Mar 17, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 28
Nott'm Forest
1-2
Newcastle
Dennis (26')
Isak (45+2', 90+3')
> Match Report
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 1
Newcastle
2-0
Nott'm Forest
Schar (58'), Wilson (78')

Worrall (15'), Williams (23'), O'Brien (56')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2018 7.45pm
Second Round
Nott'm Forest
3-1
Newcastle
Murphy (2'), Cash (90'), Dias (90')
Dias (68'), Hefele (76'), Robinson (83')
Rondon (90')
Joselu (76'), Longstaff (80'), Perez (90')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool18143145172845
2Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest1911442619737
3Arsenal18106235161936
4Chelsea19105438231535
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle1995532211132
6Manchester CityMan City199463226631
7Bournemouth198652923630
8Fulham197842825329
9Aston Villa198562831-329
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton196942928127
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1973941281324
12Brentford187383232024
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd196492126-522
15Crystal Palace194872027-720
16Everton183871524-917
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1944113142-1116
18Ipswich TownIpswich1936101833-1515
19Leicester CityLeicester1935112242-2014
20Southampton1913151239-276
> Premier League Full Table


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