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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 61.85%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 19.63% and a draw had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (4.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Notts County | Draw | Morecambe |
61.85% ( -0.43) | 18.51% ( 0.16) | 19.63% ( 0.27) |
Both teams to score 67.36% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.87% ( -0.38) | 27.13% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.35% ( -0.48) | 47.65% ( 0.47) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.35% ( -0.2) | 8.64% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.19% ( -0.49) | 29.81% ( 0.49) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.73% | 26.26% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.62% ( 0) | 61.38% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Notts County | Draw | Morecambe |
2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.84% Total : 61.86% | 1-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.52% Total : 18.51% | 1-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 19.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |