Moreirense have lost on every previous visit to the Dragao, and despite performing miracles in this competition in 2017, which included a win over Porto, a repeat is hugely improbable.
Porto are set to make a few changes to the side, but they will still be fully expecting a comfortable win against a team they have beaten 5-0 here in back-to-back seasons.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 9.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.61%) and 3-0 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (3.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
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