Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 41.98%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Moreirense |
41.98% ( -0.45) | 27.28% ( -0.14) | 30.73% ( 0.59) |
Both teams to score 48.87% ( 0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.58% ( 0.72) | 56.41% ( -0.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.57% ( 0.58) | 77.42% ( -0.59) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.48% ( 0.1) | 26.52% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.28% ( 0.13) | 61.72% ( -0.13) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.51% ( 0.81) | 33.48% ( -0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.88% ( 0.88) | 70.12% ( -0.88) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Moreirense |
1-0 @ 11.78% ( -0.3) 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 41.97% | 1-1 @ 12.89% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.28% | 0-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.43% Total : 30.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
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