Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Boavista win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
Result | ||
Boavista | Draw | Moreirense |
32.23% ( 0.21) | 26.64% ( 0.12) | 41.13% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 51.38% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.53% ( -0.42) | 53.47% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25% ( -0.36) | 74.99% ( 0.36) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.07% ( -0.07) | 30.92% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.78% ( -0.08) | 67.22% ( 0.08) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.38% ( -0.37) | 25.61% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.5% ( -0.5) | 60.5% ( 0.5) |
Score Analysis |
Boavista | Draw | Moreirense |
1-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.02% Total : 32.23% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.04) Other @ 1% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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