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Ligue 1
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Nov 22, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
Toulouse

PSG
3 - 0
Toulouse

Neves (35'), Beraldo (84'), Vitinha (90+1')
Hakimi (44')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Aboukhlal (43'), Donnum (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Angers 2-4 PSG
Saturday, November 9 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Toulouse

All competitions
Last Game: Rennes 0-2 Toulouse
Sunday, November 10 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Toulouse

 Toulouse's win here in May was their first at the Parc des Princes since 2008, and while they also held PSG to a draw in the reverse earlier last season, repeating the feat again will be unlikely, even if the hosts do rotate heavily. Even when Enrique has shuffled the pack slightly for matches in Ligue 1, they have looked even more impressive than when their full-strength side has featured in Europe, so another win is on the cards here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 63.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 15.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawToulouse
63.51% (-1.247 -1.25) 20.54% (0.731 0.73) 15.95% (0.523 0.52)
Both teams to score 51.92% (-1.261 -1.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.44% (-2.28 -2.28)43.56% (2.286 2.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.05% (-2.279 -2.28)65.95% (2.284 2.28)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.94% (-1.045 -1.05)13.06% (1.05 1.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.37% (-2.173 -2.17)39.63% (2.178 2.18)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.71% (-0.721 -0.72)40.29% (0.72499999999999 0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.09% (-0.662 -0.66)76.91% (0.667 0.67)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 63.5%
    Toulouse 15.95%
    Draw 20.54%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawToulouse
2-0 @ 10.9% (0.23 0.23)
1-0 @ 10.7% (0.64 0.64)
2-1 @ 9.91% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 7.4% (-0.142 -0.14)
3-1 @ 6.73% (-0.266 -0.27)
4-0 @ 3.77% (-0.23 -0.23)
4-1 @ 3.42% (-0.282 -0.28)
3-2 @ 3.06% (-0.184 -0.18)
4-2 @ 1.56% (-0.162 -0.16)
5-0 @ 1.53% (-0.161 -0.16)
5-1 @ 1.39% (-0.177 -0.18)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 63.5%
1-1 @ 9.74% (0.399 0.4)
0-0 @ 5.26% (0.509 0.51)
2-2 @ 4.51% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 20.54%
0-1 @ 4.78% (0.377 0.38)
1-2 @ 4.43% (0.096 0.1)
0-2 @ 2.17% (0.132 0.13)
2-3 @ 1.37% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-3 @ 1.34% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 15.95%

How you voted: PSG vs Toulouse

Paris Saint-Germain
87.9%
Draw
9.3%
Toulouse
2.8%
107
Head to Head
May 12, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 33
PSG
1-3
Toulouse
Mbappe (8')
Dallinga (13'), Gboho (68'), Magri (90+5')
> Preview
Jan 3, 2024 7.45pm
Final
PSG
2-0
Toulouse
Kang-in (3'), Mbappe (44')
Vitinha (46'), Hernandez (77')

Suazo (45+1')
> Match Report
Aug 19, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 2
Toulouse
1-1
PSG
Aboukhlal (87' pen.)
Mbappe (62' pen.)
Kang-in (45+1'), Ugarte (81'), Donnarumma (85')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2023 4pm
Gameweek 22
PSG
2-1
Toulouse
Hakimi (38'), Messi (58')
Van den Boomen (20')
> Preview
Aug 31, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 5
Toulouse
0-3
PSG

Ratao (64')
Neymar (37'), Mbappe (50'), Bernat (90')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG17134046153143
2Marseille17113339201936
3MonacoMonaco1794428181031
4Nice1786335231230
5Lille1778226161029
6Lyon178452922728
7Lens177642116527
8Toulouse177371919024
9StrasbourgStrasbourg176563029123
10Auxerre176472426-222
11Brest177192630-422
12Reims175572325-220
13Angers175481927-819
14Rennes1752102325-217
15NantesNantes173772027-716
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1751111637-2116
17Le HavreLe Havre1740131336-2312
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1723121642-269
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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