Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 37.78%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 37.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-2 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.